Recently, publications by researchers Hélene Benveniste, Peter Huybers and Jonathan Proctor, in the scientific journal Nature Communications, have deepened the data and conclusions on a topic that continue to bring up interpretations: the climate crisis/migration relationship.
The acceleration of climate change makes it necessary to reevaluate the hypotheses surrounding the causes of migratory movements between or within countries. In recent studies, a more detailed segmentation of migratory demographic characteristics has been carried out, interlinking variables such as educational and socioeconomic levels, age and gender, with records of temperature and soil humidity; essential factors in both well-being and food security.
Questions reveal what is important
Every analysis generates data, statistics, percentages, scientific basis and foundation; but what interests us most as a social organization are the questions that arise from this re-reading of the information. In this case, questions arise such as: can everyone respond by migrating when a climate crisis becomes evident; what are the characteristics of those who manage to move to another destination; what place does the climatic condition have in the movement of people; is migration as simple as a decision or does it depend on a synchronicity of factors? The Nature Communications researchers sum it up in one sentence: global climate migration is a story of who, not just how many.
Data, not opinion
The evidence drawn from the studies conducted by Benveniste and his colleagues stems from the analysis of more than 125,000 cases of cross-border migration from 168 countries of origin to 23 countries of destination and more than 480,000 cases of internal movements in 71 countries. Each migrant was classified according to age, genre, educational level, place of origin, destination and many other demographic variables. Conclusions were drawn, such as:
- In situations of extreme heat, children under 15 years of age are less likely to migrate to another country.
- Adults with a low level of education, especially those over 45 years of age, are more likely to move.
- “Double penalty”: as global temperatures rise, those with fewer resources to adapt to climate change are also restricted in their migration strategy.
- Highly educated adults residing in tropical areas show a greater tendency to relocate within their countries when temperatures rise.
- En lugares donde es habitual la sequedad y el calor, los periodos donde se intensifican estas condiciones incrementan la migración interna, especialmente entre los menos educados.
- The study finds no evidence of massive waves of cross-border migration as a direct consequence of climatic phenomenal.
- The study estimates that by the year 2100 migration rates could increase by around 25% among older and less educated adults, and decrease by up to 33% among younger and less educated adults.
This type of analysis aims to shed light on another aspect of migratory events, not by detecting or predicting the number of migrants in the future, but by focusing the discussion on issues related to quality of life, human conditions, resources and the tools that people have at their disposal when planning their lives.
The climate collapse is a global problem that also puts on the table fundamental issues such as the right to decide how to resolve our future in the face of a crisis that endangers our own lives, our environment, our work, family sustenance, wellbeing and quality of life. It is important to be attentive to the conditions of those who are displaced as well as those who are not, because there's so much information and more information arise.
Emigration is not always the answer for everyone and may not always be a possibility, but, without a doubt, being able to choose how to live and how to defend our lives is a common good to be protected, and for this we need concrete data and policies to accompany the conclusions.
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